I don’t normally post but in this age of new investors I see a lot of enthusiasm and questions as to what to invest in. This question is a potentially deep one and one that I find captivating, with its answer burried in the quickly developing cryptocurrency landscape.
It is true that nothing is certain in this future. Bitcoin could reach one million, maintaining it’s hold as the main trading pair; it could stagnate in the transaction scaling issues which grow more prominent, necessitating in the diversification of trading pairs and commercially accepted cryptocurrencies; or one of the infinite combinations between.
One thing that is certain about our future is as the total market cap grows, governments and institutions in positions of power are going to want to put their hands into the game in order to control or regulate so that they can get a piece of what they believe is theirs.
Now rules and regulations are not something I claim to be an expert in so I won’t attempt to speak to them but I know one thing, governments love their money and they will not stand idly by watching this market make tremendous profits for many involved and not want a piece. They fear not having control over something so powerful and lucrative.
We see this already with the IRS requesting Coinbase to hand over information on users ([link](https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/11/29/16717416/us-coinbase-irs-records)), and the Department of Defense sending memos requesting assistance in the research of stealth addresses, ring signatures and Cryptonote (Monero, Aeon) code in general ([link](https://i.warosu.org/data/biz/img/0033/62/1504671158465.jpg)). These are the whispers in the wind of what is coming. They want to be able to see and monitor what people have and where it is going. Private and fungible cryptocurrency makes the surveillance obsessed state sweat.
So what does this mean? Large scale blockchain analysis to link address ownership to you, tracking not only wealth but where that money goes? Mandatory reporting of trade history if Coinbase reports your purchasing (which would also reveal your addresses if you send directly to it)? I am not sure what the form this increased scrutiny will bring. The important part is that public blockchains (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and many more) make these things possible.
Now public blockchains aren’t going anywhere because many people don’t care about their freedom and privacy as we have seen with the whole net neutrality fiasco and the many government leaks concerning surveillance. But what happens as cryptocurrencies continue to grow, regulations are passed, the wealth of many of you grow to the point that governments become interested you? These are a few (but very important) reasons there will be a massive growth in anonymous and private cryptocurrencies in the coming years of mass adoption.
There are several coins touted as private and anonymous, but every one has some compromise or vulnerability, except one ([link](https://moneroforcash.com/monero-vs-dash-vs-zcash-vs-bitcoinmixers.php)). That one is also the only one that the DoD is sending memos about and the FBI has been unable to crack (AlphaBay take down. [Excerpt](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FSietBhv.png&t=584&c=iXlxRu0fsSk3uA) [Link](https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3898109/AlphaBay-Cazes-Forfeiture-Complaint.pdf)), Cryptonote cryptocurrencies. This really only pertained to Monero as the sole holder of the privacy throne.
How much growth can we expect to see? Is it reasonable to assume that in the next years monero could get to the market cap of Ethereum, $60 billion, or 1/4 of Bitcoin’s current market cap? If that becomes reality we would see $4,000 monero, a 11x increase from today’s standing. This may be conservative and even happen by year end 2018.
Now I said “pertained” earlier because there used to be only one viable Cryptonote currency. There have been others but nothing ever truly got off the ground. But there is currently life being breathed into [Aeon](https://www.reddit.com/r/Aeon/), a Cryptonote currency touting all the benefits of Monero (now and future) with more of a focus on easy of use and mobility with a lighter version of the same ASIC resistant Cryptonote algorithm. This is a risky investment now as work is still being done but if this is successful in what they have set out to accomplish, Aeon will be the Litecoin to Monero.
They may also have a more symbiotic dynamic than the bitcoin-litecoin relationship. Aeon can serve as a test bed for new ideas for use in Monero and the similarity between the two may someday lead to atomic swap-like technology to help solve scaling issues that will undoubtedly arise in the growing usage of Monero like we currently see in Bitcoin.
Again, it’s still early but keep an eye on this one. It’s hanging out around $50 million market cap which is like getting into Monero in mid 2016. And if Monero gets to the Ethereum levels mentioned above, Aeon would likely maintain a 1/10 value relationship and be around where Monero is today, $350 – $400, a 100x gain. So in my opinion, very cheap for a coin that no one can see how much you have or where it goes, not even the government.
Just two cents that were getting a little heavy on my chest.