Small-Cap Oil Stocks

Oil Stocks

List of Small-Cap Oil Stocks Listed on U.S. Exchanges

This list includes small-sized oil & gas companies with a market capitalization between 300 million and two billion dollars. We update this page at the start of every month so it is possible that a stock’s market cap might fall below 300 million dollars or go above two billion dollars between updates. Additional oil & gas companies can be found in the following sections:

Large-Cap Oil & Gas

Mid-Cap Oil & Gas

Micro-Cap Oil & Gas

Nano-Cap Oil & Gas

In parentheses you will find a short description or areas of focus for the company.

Select the company’s link to view profiles, charts, company website information or news links for the selected company.

Downstream    

Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ) (Crude oil refineries; convenience stores; asphalt)

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (CLMT) (Specialty and fuel products)

CrossAmerica Partners L.P. (CAPL) (Wholesale fuel distribution)

CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) (Holdings in petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer businesses)

CVR Refining, L.P. (CVRR) (Crude oil refineries)

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) (Refineries, logistics, convenience stores)

Global Partners L.P. (GLP) (Midstream logistics, marketing, convenience stores)

NGL Energy Partners L.P. (NGL) (Diversified midstream assets; marketing, retail propane, water treatment)

Par Petroleum Corporation (PARR) (Refineries and marketing)

Sprague Resources L.P. (SRLP) (Energy and Materials Handling Services)

 OilStocks

Equipment and Services

Archrock, Inc. (AROC) (Natural gas contract compression services; holds interests in Archrock Partners, L.P.)

Archrock Partners, L.P. (APLP) (Natural gas contract compression services)

Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (ATW) (Offshore drilling company)

Bristow Group Inc. (BRS) (Helicopter services)

CGG (CGG) (France: Seismic equipment and reservoir monitoring instruments; geophysical surveys)

Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) (Cryogenic equipment used in the energy, health care and life sciences industries)

Carbo Ceramics, Inc. (CRR) (Production enhancement and environmental solution products and services)

Exterran Corporation (EXTN) (Oil and gas production equipment, water treatment products and services, natural gas compression, gas processing and treating)

Flotek Industries, Inc. (FTK) (Equipment and services)

FMSA Holdings Inc. (FMSA) (Sand and sand products used by exploration and production companies)

Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) (Provides oilfield products to the oil & gas subsea, drilling, completion, production and infrastructure sectors)

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) (Offshore specialty services)

Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO) (Offshore contract drilling and liftboat services)

Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) (Offshore service vessels)

McDermott International, Inc. (MDR) (Offshore engineering, procurement, construction and installation services)

MRC Global Inc. (MRC) (Fittings (PVF), pipes and valves)

Newpark Resources, Inc. (NR) (Drilling fluids products and services; Matting solutions and well site construction services)

Noble Corporation (NE) (United Kingdom: contract offshore drilling services)

NOW Inc. (DNOW) (Distributor to the energy and industrial markets)

Oil States International, Inc. (OIS) (Completion services, deepwater capital equipment, land drilling services)

Precision Drilling Corporation (PDS) (Canada: drilling products and services)

Rowan Companies (RDC) (Contract offshore drilling services)

SEACOR Holdings, Inc. (CKH) (Inland rivers services, shipping services, storage and handling)

Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL) (United Kingdom: contract offshore drilling services)

Superior Energy Services, Inc. (SPN) (Specialized oilfield services, tools and equipment)

Tetra Technologies, Inc. (TTI) (Equipment and services)

Tidewater Inc. (TDW) (Offshore service vessels)

Transocean Partners LLC (RIGP) (Scotland; contract offshore drilling services)

USA Compression Partners LP (USAC) (Compression services for natural gas companies)

Exploration and Production    

California Resources Corporation (CRC) (California)

Callon Petroleum Company (CPE) (Texas)

Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. (CRZO) (Unconventional Assets)

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) (Multiple Regions)

Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (CIE) (Offshore: Gulf of Mexico and West Africa)

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) (Coal and natural gas)

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR) (Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain Region)

EP Energy Corporation (EPE) (Louisiana, Texas and Utah)

Erin Energy Corp (ERN) (Sub-Saharan Africa)

EXCO Resources NL (XCO) (Louisiana, Texas and the Appalachia Region)

Laredo Petroleum, Inc. (LPI) (Texas)

Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) (Multiple Regions)

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) (Louisiana and Texas)

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS) (Williston Basin)

QEP Resources, Inc. (QEP) (Williston Basin, Permian Basin, Pinedale Anticline, Uinta Basin and Haynesville Shale)

Rice Energy Inc. (RICE) (Appalachian Basin)

SM Energy Company (SM) (Multiple regions)

Synergy Resources Corporation (SYRG) (Colorado)

Unit Corporation (UNT) (Diversified Energy Company)

Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (VNR) (Multi Region)

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM) (Texas)

Whiting Petroleum Corporation (WLL) (New Mexico, Rocky Mountains and Texas)

WPX Energy, Inc. (WPX) (Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota)

Exploration and Production: Foreign Companies

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) (Canada: Activities in Alberta)

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) (Canada: Activities in Western Canada and Texas)

CNOOC Limited (CEO) (China’s Largest Offshore Oil & Gas Producer)

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) (Columbia: Integrated oil & gas company; activities in Brazil, Peru and the United States Gulf Coast)

Enerplus Corporation (ERF) (Canada: Activities in North Dakota, Montana and Western Canada)

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) (Canada: Activities in South America)

InterOil Corporation (IOC) (Singapore: Activities in Papua New Guinea)

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) (Atlantic Margin)

Pengrowth Energy Corporation (PGH) (Canada: Activities in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin)

Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE) (Canada: Activities in Western Canada)

Petrobras Argentina S.A. (PZE) (Argentina: Integrated Oil & Gas; activities in South America)

Marine Fuel Oil

Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. (ANW) (Greece)

Midstream

Columbia Pipeline Partners L.P. (CPPL) (Natural gas pipelines and underground storage systems)

Cone Midstream Partners L.P. (CNNX) (Pipelines and other facilities)

Crestwood Equity Partners L.P. (CEQP) (Natural gas storage; NGL and crude oil services)

Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. (DKL) (Midstream MLP)

Enbridge Energy Management LLC (EEQ) (Manages and controls Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.)

Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP) (Pipelines and terminals)

Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (MMLP) (Terminals and storage assets)

Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. (MEP) (Formed by Enbridge Energy Partners)

NGL Energy Partners L.P. (NGL) (Diversified midstream assets; marketing, retail propane, water treatment)

Nustar GP Holdings, LLC (NSH) (Owns general partner and limited partner interests in NuStar Energy L.P.)

PBF Logistics L.P. (PBFX) (Midstream MLP)

PennTex Midstream Partners LP (PTXP) (IPO in June 2015: Midstream services)

Rice Midstream Partners L.P. (RMP) (Gathering, compression and dehydration assets)

Rose Rock Midstream, L.P. (RRMS) (Crude oil pipelines and storage facilities)

Semgroup Corporation (SEMG) (Midstream energy assets)

Summit Midstream Partners, L.P. (SMLP) (Pipelines)

Targa Resources Corp (TRGP) (Ownership interest in Targa Resource Partners)

Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (TLP) (Midstream MLP)

Transportadora de Gas Del Sur S.A. (TGS) (Argentina: Pipelines, NGL processing)

VTTI Energy Partners L.P. (VTTI) (United Kingdom: Terminals)

Western Refining Logistics, L.P. (WNRL) (Pipelines, terminals and storage assets)

World Point Terminals, L.P. (WPT) (Midstream MLP)

Oil and Gas Trusts

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) (Interests in in the Prudhoe Bay oil field located in Alaska)

Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP)  (Royalty, overriding royalty, net profits and leasehold interests in oil & gas properties)

Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) (Trust formed by Sabine Corporation)

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) (Land trust; revenues from oil & gas royalties, grazing leases, etc.)

Propane Distributors

Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. (FGP) (Residential, commercial and agricultural propane delivery and refill)

Star Gas Partners, L.P. (SGU) (Home heating oil and propane distributor)

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) (Propane, fuel oil and refined fuels)

Small-Cap Retail Stocks

Retail Stocks

List of Small-Cap Retail Stocks Listed on U.S. Exchanges

This list includes small-sized retail companies with a market capitalization between 300 million and two billion dollars. We update this page at the start of every month so it is possible that a stock’s market cap might fall below 300 million dollars or go above two billion dollars between updates. Additional retail companies can be found in the following sections:

Large-Cap Retail

Mid-Cap Retail

Micro-Cap Retail

In parentheses you will find a short description or areas of focus for the company.

Select the company’s link to view profiles, charts, company website information or news links for the selected company.

Auto Dealerships

Asbury Automotive Group Inc. (ABG)  (Automotive dealerships located primarily in the Southeastern region of the Unites States)

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) (Automotive dealerships, franchises and collision centers in the United States, United Kingdom and Brazil)

Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA) (Operates commercial truck dealerships)

Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) (Dealerships spread across approximately 14 states)

Boating

MarineMax, Inc. (HZO) (Recreational boat retailer)

Book Stores

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS)

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (BNED) (Operates campus bookstores)

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (DANG) (China:  ecommerce book retailer)

RetailStocks

Clothing Stores

Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) (Retail stores: casual apparel personal care and accessories; brands include Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie Kids and Hollister)

Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA) (Women’s Apparel: Retail stores focusing on women and tween girls; brands include Dressbarn, Maurices, Justice, Lane Bryant, Ann Taylor, LOFT and Catherines)

Buckle, Inc. (The) (BKE) (Apparel, footwear and accessories stores)

Cato Corporation (The) (CATO) (Women’s Apparel: Apparel and accessories specialty stores: brands include Cato, Versona, It’s Fashion and It’s Fashion Metro)

Chico’s FAS, Inc. (CHS) (Women’s Apparel: Boutiques and outlets for women’s apparel and accessories; brands include Boston Proper, Chico’s, Soma Intimates and White House | Black Market)

Children’s Place, Inc. (The) (PLCE) (Children’s specialty apparel retailer)

Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) (Lifestyle brand retailer)

Express, Inc. (EXPR) (Specialty apparel and accessories retailer)

Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (FRAN) (Women’s Apparel: Retail boutiques targeting female consumers between the ages of 18 and 35)

Guess?, Inc. (GES) (Apparel retail stores in Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America in addition to licenses and franchises of addition stores outside North America)

Land’s End, Inc. (LE) (Catalog and ecommerce: men’s women’s and children’s apparel, footwear and accessories)

Stein Mart, Inc. (SMRT) (Retail men’s and women’s apparel stores)

Tailored Brands, Inc. (TLRD) (Men’s apparel stores: brands include Men’s Wearhouse and Tux, Jos. A. Bank, K&G and Moores)

Winmark Corporation (WINA) (Diversified specialty stores: Brands include Once Upon A Child, Plato’s Closet, Play It Again Sports and Style Encore)

Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ)  (Athletic Apparel: Retail stores: action sports oriented stores)

Convenience Stores

Getty Realty Corporation (GTY) (Retail REIT)

TravelCenters of America (TA) (Full-Service Travel Centers)

Department Stores  

Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) (Brands include Sears, Roebuck and Kmart Corporation)

Discount Variety Stores

Fred’s, Inc. (FRED) (Primarily Located in the Southeast)

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) (IPO in July 2015: Discount retail stores)

Drug Stores  

Pharmerica Corporation (PMC) (Operates institutional and specialty pharmacies that provide services to healthcare providers)

Electronics and Video Stores

Conn’s, Inc. (CONN) (Home appliance, electronic and furniture stores)

Outerwall Inc. (OUTR)(Redbox and Coinstar)

Flower Stores  

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS) 

FTD Companies, Inc. (FTD)

Health Food, Organic and Nutrition Stores

Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. (VSI) (Nutritional product stores: vitamins, supplements, sports nutrition, homeopathic remedies, beauty products)

Home Furnishing Rental Stores

Aaron’s, Inc. (AAN) (Rent-to-own stores: appliances, computers, electronics and furniture)

Rent-A-Center Inc. (RCII)  (Rent-to-own stores: appliances, computers, electronics and furniture)

Home Furnishing Retailers  

Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. (BSET) (Custom Furniture)

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) (Interior design services, furniture and accessories)

Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (HVT) (Home furnishing stores primarily located in the Southern and Midwestern regions of the United States)

La-Z-Boy Incorporated (LZB) (Upholstery furniture products)

Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM) (Mattresses and related bedding products)

Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (PIR) (Retail: focused on imports)

Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. (RH) (Luxury retailer of home furnishings)

Select Comfort Corporation (SCSS) (Mattresses and related bedding products)

Tuesday Morning Corp. (TUES)(Closeouts of medium & high end home accessories and housewares)

Home Improvement Stores  

Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. (LL) (Retail locations: hardwood flooring)

Tile Shop Hldgs, Inc. (TTS) (Retail locations: manufactured and natural stone tiles)

Jewelry Stores

Blue Nile, Inc. (NILE) (Online retailer)

Payday Loans and Pawn Shops

Cash America International, Inc. (CSH) (Pawn Shops)

First Cash Financial Services, Inc. (FCFS) (Pawn Shops)

Salons and Beauty Products

Jumei International Holding Limited (JMEI) (China: online retailer of beauty products)

Regis Corporation (RGS) (Cost Cutters, First Choice Haircutter, MasterCuts, Regis Salons, SmartStyle and Supercuts)

Seasonal

Party City Inc. (PRTY) (IPO in April 2015: theme and seasonal company owned and franchise stores)

Shoe Stores

Caleres, Inc. (CAL)(Formerly the Brown Shoe Company: retail stores; brands include Carlos Santana, Dr. Scholl’s, Famous Footwear)

Crocs, Inc. (CROX) (Retail stores; casual footwear for men, women and children)

Genesco Inc. (GCO) (Retail stores: footwear, headwear, sports apparel and accessories)

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) (Retail stores: dress, casual and athletic footwear)

Sporting Goods Stores

Hibbett Sports, Inc. (HIBB) (Athletic footwear, apparel and equipment)

Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH) (Outdoor sporting goods: hunting, shooting, fishing and camping gear)

Technology Stocks in the S&P 500 Index

Technology Stocks

Technology Stocks in the S&P 500 Index

The companies on this list are information technology companies in the S&P 500 index. Additional S&P 500 companies can be located in our S&P 500 section.

Select the company’s link to access charts, news links and company website and social media information.

Technology Companies

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) (Search engine, YouTube, Android, Chrome, ad technology platform, Google Play, Gmail)

Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) (Search engine, YouTube, Android, Chrome, ad technology platform, Google Play, Gmail)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) (Mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, portable digital music players; networking solutions; software platforms include iOS, OS X and watchOS; third-party digital content and applications; brands include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, iTunes)

Facebook, Inc. (FB) (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp)

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE)

HP Inc. (HPQ) (Personal computers, enterprise IT infrastructure, imaging and printing related products, software and technology consulting, outsourcing and support services)

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)  (Consulting and IT infrastructure and business process services; cloud and cognitive offerings; middleware and operating systems software; infrastructure technologies)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) (Mega-cap technology company: operating segments include Devices and Consumer Licensing, Computing and Gaming Hardware, Phone Hardware, Devices and Consumer Other, Commercial Licensing and Commercial Other)

TechnologyStocks

Communications Equipment

F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) (Software-defined application services)

Harris Corporation (HRS) (Communications and information systems)

Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR) (Networking software, silicon and systems)

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) (Communication infrastructure, devices, accessories, software and services)

Content Delivery Network

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) (Content Delivery Network (CDN) services)

Cybersecurity Companies

Symantec Corporation (SYMC) (Operates a civilian cyber intelligence threat network; products and services designed to protect people and information in digital environments)

Data Storage

NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) (Data storage software, systems and services)

Seagate Technology (STX) (Electronic data storage technology; hard disk drives)

Teradata Corporation (TDC) (Analytic data platforms, marketing and analytic applications, related services)

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) (Data storage solutions: hard disk drives, solid-state drives, direct attached storage solutions, public and private cloud data center storage)

Internet

eBay Inc. (EBAY) (Online auction)

Paypal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) (Digital and mobile payment platform)

VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) (Domain name registry services and Internet security)

IT Consulting and Professional Services

Accenture Plc. (ACN) (Ireland: management consulting, technology and outsourcing services)

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH) (Information technology, consulting and business process outsourcing services)

CSRA Inc. (CSRA) (Provides IT services to government customers)

DXC Technology Company (DXC) (IT and professional services to U.S. government, state and local governments and commercial entities)

Marketing

Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS) (Analytics and creative services, customer loyalty programs, database marketing services, direct marketing services, end-to-end marketing services, private label and co-brand retail credit card programs)

Materials

Corning Incorporated (GLW) (Glass substrates used in LCD displays; ceramic substrates and filter products; optical fiber and cable; scientific laboratory products; specialty materials)

Money Transfer

Western Union Company (The) (WU) (Money transfer and payment services)

Networking Equipment and Services

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) (Networking products and services)

Payment and Transaction Processing

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) (Banking and payment products)

Fiserv, Inc. (FISV) (Financial services technology)

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) (Transaction and payment products)

Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

Total System Services, Inc. (TSS) (Electronic payment services)

Visa Inc. (V)

Professional Services 

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) (Payroll, HR, retirement and insurance services)

Xerox Corporation (XRX) (Printing products; business and consulting services)

Search Engines

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) (Yahoo Search, Yahoo Mail, Yahoo Messenger, digital content (sports, weather, finance), Flickr, Tumblr)

Semiconductor Companies

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) (Fabless semiconductor company)

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) (Semiconductors: solar modules, solar power plants)

Intel (INTC)

Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP)

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (Fabless semiconductor company)

Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO)

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) (Fabless semiconductor company)

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS)

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX) (Fabless semiconductor company)

Semiconductors Equipment and Services

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) (Products for the Semiconductor, Display and Solar Photovoltaic Industries)

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC) (Defect Inspection and Metrology Equipment)

Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) (Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools and Semiconductor IP)

Sensors

Amphenol Corporation (APH) (Antennas, connectors, coaxial and high-speed specialty cable, interconnect systems, sensors and sensor- based products)

FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR) (Diversified: sensor systems used by military and law enforcement; thermal imaging equipment, cameras and video recording systems)

TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) (Connectivity and sensor products)

Software

Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) (Broad portfolio of products: reportable segments include digital marketing, digital media and print and publishing)

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (3D design, engineering and entertainment software: reportable operating segments include (1) architecture, engineering and construction, (2) platform solutions and emerging business, (3) manufacturing and (4) media and entertainment)

Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS) (Workspace Services and Delivery Networking products; Communications Cloud, Documents Cloud and Workflow Cloud products)

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) (Operating segments include: cloud infrastructure as a service, new software licenses and cloud software subscriptions, software license updates and product support, hardware systems products, hardware systems support)

Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) (Enterprise cloud computing solutions: customer relationship management)

Software: Financial Services

Intuit Inc. (INTU) (Brands include QuickBooks, TurboTax, Quicken and Mint; operating segments include Small Business, Consumer Tax and Professional Tax)

Software: IT Management

CA Inc. (CA) (IT management software and related services)

Software: Open Source Model

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT) (Open source software development model: cloud computing, middleware, operating systems, storage, virtualization)

Software: Video and Mobile Games

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) (Call of Duty, Destiny, Diablo, Guitar Hero, Hearthstone, Skylanders, StarCraft and World of Warcraft)

Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) (Dragon Age, EA Sports (multiple brands), Madden, Plants vs. Zombies and The Sims)

Software: Workplace and Work Management Software

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) (Cloud-based solutions and services: human capital management, human resources, payroll services, recruiting, talent management, benefits administration, time and attendance management)

Bitcoin’s Rally Looks Sustainable – A Technical Analysis

Bitcoin

In this article, the author explains why he has been buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies over the past two weeks. This article focuses on bitcoin technical analysis, which points to a favorable setup. Since BTC is the largest cryptocurrency and others are often highly correlated with it, the author has been buying Ethereum as well. 

Bitcoin sentiment is rapidly turning positive. For one thing, mainstream media headlines covering bitcoin has changed from talks of “meltdown” to “Bitcoin broke through $11,000 for the first time since January” (CNBC). The big question now is if bitcoin has already found a bottom and is now set up for a sustained rally. Judging from our technical analysis, we believe this is the case.

Back in January, we wrote an article titled Bitcoin Meltdown: Its Worse Than you Think.  In that article, we warned that, at the time, a 42% pullback from its all-time-high couldn’t even be considered a bitcoin bear market since, 54% of the time, bitcoin trades 40% or lower vs. its all-time-high. We looked at historical drawdowns and warned that it could get a lot worse before things got better.

As we all know, bitcoin’s sell off continued from the time of our article, dropping a whopping 61% from January 26th (the publication date) through February 5th, when bitcoin finally found a bottom at $6,955 (closing price). At that price, bitcoin was 64.3% lower vs. its all-time-high. While are no standards for defining a bitcoin bear market, we believe this recent sell off certainly qualifies. Using data going back to 2012, only 22% of BTC’s trading days were spent trading lower than 64.3% pullback from its previous all-time-high, and most of those dark days were in 2015.

Bitcoin coin

To visualize how bad the recent sell off was, look at the below chart:

As of February 18th, BTC is trading at 45.9% below its all-time high, putting it back within its “normal trading range” as 46% of all trading days were spent below that level (i.e. in 46 out of 100 trading days, BTC traded at or below a 46% pull back from its previous all-time-high).

In addition, we noticed something very interesting in early February: BTC broke below its 200-day moving average on February 5th, and rather than a rapid deterioration in price as we saw when BTC broke through its 50-day moving average in January, BTC rallied 11.5% the following day, pulled back only 1.7% on the second day, and has been trending up since.

Although there are no laws of nature stating that any of these arbitrary moving averages are meaningful, experienced traders know that the 50 and 200 day moving averages are widely used by others, and thus are imbued with psychological significance. When it comes to highly speculative assets with little intrinsic value like BTC, in our experience, market psychology is of paramount importance.

In other words, we believe the key takeaway from our analysis is that the 200-day moving average has served as a support level rather than a resistance level. To see why this is important, let’s go back to the 2014 through 2015 period.

Back in 2014, BTC first crossed below its 200-day moving average on March 27th and stayed below the 200-day for 67 consecutive days. On June 2nd, 2014, BTC crossed above the 200-day moving average but was unable to pull ahead as BTC fluctuated around the 200-day over the subsequent week. This is in stark contrast with what we saw this time around, as BTC is currently trading at a solid 26% above its 200-day moving average (closing price as of 2/18/2018). Even without the benefit of hindsight, it was clear that the 200-day moving average has become a resistance level. The rest is history as BTC spent over a year before it would test the 200-day moving average resistance level once again.

From a technical analysis perspective, we don’t see many parallels between the 2017-2018 period off vs. the 2013-2015 period. But we do see many parallels with the 2013 period.

Back in early 2013, Bitcoin was in the middle of a massive rally as BTC rose parabolically. On April 9th, 2013, BTC closed at a new record of $230 per BTC, before experiencing a bear market. In fact, in 20 out of the 30 trading days, from March 11th through April 9th, BTC set a new all-time-high. This closely parallels BTC’s November through December 2017 rally, when BTC new all-time-high prices 18 out of 30 days during its rally.

We won’t go through every detail of what happened subsequently in 2013, but one key point was that BTC didn’t test its 200-day moving average until July 5th, when it crossed below the 200-day. Then BTC rallied for 8 consecutive days and wouldn’t test the 200-day moving average until March 2014, as discussed previously.

BTC would end up testing and crossing above its 50-day moving average on July 25th, 2013, at $96.90 per BTC, and proceeded to rally 33% over the subsequent 60 trading days. We believe this is important to note since, currently, BTC is still trading at below its 50-day moving average. But at only 9.1% below its 50-day moving average, we believe this level will be tested very soon, which could be a catalyst for further price appreciation.

Since 2012, BTC’s median return in any 60 days out is 16%. We’ve observed that some of the strongest 60-day returns occurred after BTC crossing above its 50-day moving average. For example:

9/27/2017: after 7 trading days below, BTC crossed the 50-day and rallied 109% in the subsequent 60 day period.
7/20/2017: after 11 trading days below, BTC cross the 50-day and rallied 27% in the subsequent 60 day period.
4/3/2017: after 12 trading days below, BTC cross the 50-day and rallied 111% in the subsequent 60 day period.
1/17/2017: after 6 trading days below, BTC cross the 50-day and rallied 21% in the subsequent 60 day period.
9/4/2016: after 41 trading days below, BTC cross the 50-day and rallied 22% in the subsequent 60 day period.

In conclusion, we believe that the technical set up for bitcoin looks very favorable here. In our analysis, the current set up has many more parallels with 2013 than 2014. We are encouraged by the fact that BTC found support in its 200-day trading average and see the potential to test and cross above its 50-day moving average as an upcoming catalyst for further price appreciation. However, while this article focuses on technical analysis, investors should be keen observers of fundamental developments. A major hack or unexpected regulatory headwind could quickly change the trading dynamics. We will do our best to keep our readers informed.

Goldman is Wrong About Cryptos Going to Zero

Cryptos

Goldman has done it once again. Another round of FUD has been unleashed, as they claim that most if not all cryptos will go to zero. Here’s our reaction to their investor note.

Recently, Steve Strongin, head of Goldman Sachs global investment research, released a note to investors that was picked up by the media. In this note, Goldman stated that most, if not all, cryptocurrencies will likely go to zero, since they have no intrinsic value and the crypto market is not rational. This decidedly negative tone is nothing new for Goldman as they stated in October last year that Bitcoin is not the new gold. Coming off the heels of a steep early February crash, this provocative message is likely to spook a few investors. Let’s take a deeper dive into Goldman’s reasoning.

Survival of the Fittest?

Even the most hardcore blockchain enthusiasts have been surprised at the plethora of altcoins that have entered the market and garnered sky-high valuations relative to their usefulness to society. Coins like Dentacoin (a cryptocurrency for dentists) and Dogecoin (literally a meme cryptocurrency) have managed to exceed the market cap of many large companies. Although there are quite a few promising altcoins, they are vastly outnumbered by projects that are driven by pure speculation.

In Goldman’s note, they liken the current crypto boom to the late 90s internet bubble. If that is the case, then there are many examples of the next Pets.com. Most in the cryptocurrency community would agree with Goldman in this respect. The pure monkey-dart FOMO (“fear of missing out”) approach of late 2017 must be replaced by careful selection of coins with groundbreaking technology and partnerships with established businesses. It should come as no surprise that many of the vaporware and literal ponzi scheme coins will eventually die out.

Cryptos BTC

No Intrinsic Value?

Another point in the Goldman note was that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value. While this may be an effective argument for equities, it doesn’t explain why we assign such high value to chunks of metal like gold bars. Furthermore, while the first generation of coins like Bitcoin serve primarily as stores of value or forms of transaction, the next generations of coins, like Ethereum and beyond, serve as platforms upon which smart contracts and decentralized apps are built. In our opinion, the usefulness of cryptocurrencies is perhaps limited in scope, but the possibilities for blockchain technology are endless.

Any place where databases are used, like logistics, supply chain, even medical records, are slowly but surely exploring and adopting blockchain technology. The ability to store immutable records on a ledger that can be easily accessed has endless applications. In this respect, the moniker cryptocurrency is a misnomer these days, as blockchain can be thought of as more of an ecosystem for a variety of applications than merely a currency. It should come as no surprise why titans of industry like IBM (IBM), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Disney (DIS) have devoted resources to invest in blockchain or even develop their own proprietary blockchains.

Irrational Market

Goldman writes that the cryptocurrency market behaves irrationally because all coins tend to move in the same direction at once. Most crypto investors would agree that this is a problem, as one bad day for Bitcoin can spell disaster for the whole market. However, there is a simple reason why this is the case: most altcoin crypto exchanges offer only a few trading pairs, so you have to use a “big name” crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum to buy altcoins. There are only a few fiat to crypto gateways, but most altcoins rely on Bitcoin or Ethereum markets. Thus, it should come as no surprise that coins are correlated. The advent of decentralized exchanges and more coins getting fiat pairings should help alleviate this issue.

The final Goldman point is a common one among crypto critics. Basically, the question is: what’s stopping anyone from creating a cryptocurrency and entering the market? It seems that there are almost no barriers to entry and that coins with very little utility can be listed on exchanges and command high market caps. Although it is true that barriers to entry are minimal, it is actually extremely difficult to crack the very top of the market. The coins in the top 10 in market cap have weathered multiple downturns, hostile attacks from hackers, and threats of government bans to gain significant adoption and show promises of extensive use cases.

We have formulated a metric to gauge the concentration in the cryptocurrency market called CCI.

This metric shows that there is a very high proportion of market share captured by a few of the top coins. While new coins are hitting the market and grabbing headlines for their high market cap to utility ratio, the vast majority of value is still being assigned to the ‘blue chip’ cryptos. In fact, if we apply this same calculation to the constituents of NASDAQ, we get a concentration score of around 40%. This suggests that crypto is even more concentrated than the stock market and not just a grab bag of coins being assigned random values.

Although there is a downward trend in the CCI and we expect this trend to continue in the short-term, we think that eventually there will be reversal of this trend, as coins with superior technology and ‘killer apps’ are uncovered and dominate the market. This goes back to the point of doing research and thinking about the technology and applications of coins, rather than hopping on the latest trending coin.

Conclusion

Goldman’s note to investors was not unwarranted, as even crypto enthusiasts would agree with their assessments of problems in the space, particularly the prevalence of altcoins with little utility and the high degree of correlation between coins. However, overall, Goldman is still viewing cryptocurrencies as a store of value and missing some of the very exciting applications that are possible with the blockchain technology that provide real-world value. In addition, Goldman is dismissing the market as completely irrational, whereas it is actually quite efficient in allocation of value to the top projects.

We believe in the long-term future of blockchain technology and have already begun to see some very exciting applications of it. We caution investors to do extensive research before investing in any coin and encourage investors to find projects that have solid use cases. Many of the coins that hit the market may indeed fall to zero once the hype dies down, but there will be coins that not only survive, but prosper.

If you found this article helpful, please follow up for the latest updates. If you have any questions or comments, we would love to hear from you. Let’s discuss in the comment section below!

Large Corporations Are Embracing Blockchain

Block chain

More corporations are embracing blockchain technology than you might realize. In fact, 6 out of 10 are exploring the use of blockchain. This is great news for the ecosystem since this could drive mainstream adoption as value-add use-cases are developed/ 

At the time of writing, there are over 1,500 cryptocurrencies listed on coinmarketcap.com. This naturally raises the question as to the need for such a sheer amount of choice in the scene when the majority of lay people will only have heard of Bitcoin. Buried deep in this long list of coins and tokens, there may very well be a company with an outstanding group of developers creating ground-breaking technologies that will change the world forever. Anyone with a sliver of skepticism however, would find this hard to believe when they come across something like “Useless Ethereum Token” which admits on its own website that “The UET ICO transparently offers investors no value, so there will be no expectation of gains. No gains means few investors”.

Amidst this sea of (sometimes questionable) competition, some high profile and more traditional companies have cast their eyes upon cryptocurrencies. With the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum recently breaking through the confines of being known only by programmers and crypto enthusiasts to becoming household names, it’s no wonder that this type of industry has caught the attention of some giants of business. The resolve of these companies to create new and exciting blockchain technologies will show in the next few years as cryptocurrency edges more and more into the mainstream. One thing for certain is, with the hype surrounding new high-profile ICOs, there is definitely money to be made.

Blockchain

On 9th of February, Kodak (KODK) announced that it was launching its own form of blockchain technology, to be called KodakCoin, which they described as a “Photocentric cryptocurrency”. The next day, shares of Kodak spiked in true crypto fashion to an increase of 72%. Kodak describes their coin as being a “Revolutionary new image rights management and protection platform” which uses its own blockchain to create a digital ledger to show which photographer has rights ownership of images and will allow photographers to receive payment for licensing their work. While the idea sounds good in execution, it makes you wonder if there is a demand and sustainable user base for this technology, or has Kodak jumped on the bandwagon after seeing potential profit surrounding the excitement around companies embracing blockchain? This remains an open debate as the stock has fluctuated wildly, going up as much as 270% shortly after announcing its crypto initiative and is now trading at around 90% higher than its pre-announcement.

Another blockchain platform with a bit more of a focus on business use is Dragonchain. Dragonchain was first known as Disney Private Blockchain Platform when it was developed in 2015 at the Seattle Disney (DIS) office. They released the platform in October 2016 as open source software which lead to the birth of The Dragonchain Foundation in January 2017, who set out to maintain and own the open-source code. Dragonchain intends to emulate existing blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum but to improve it from a business point of view by making it less risky from a security aspect. It achieves this by being built on a scalable serverless platform with built-in protections of business data using already established programming languages such as Java, Python and C#. Dragonchain’s “Incubator” provides early access to smart contracts built on the Dragonchain platform and is scaled by active crowd participation. The dragon, or DRGN, the token used across the platform, increased in value by over 500% between December 30th 2017 and January 7th 2018.

While the previous two examples are very different in their proposed uses and audience, the common denominator between the two is the wealth created by either the hype, innovative technology, or combination of both. Perhaps this is what caught the attention of IBM (IBM), who recently partnered with gargantuan shipping company Maersk to apply blockchain software to their systems. They plan on adding value to their bottom line by creating a “Global trade network” using blockchain as a digital ledger to make their logistics faster, easier and more comprehensible. The prospect of wealth and future-proofing of companies may also be the reason the Chinese government, who have recently been apprehensive towards cryptocurrencies, have planned collaboration with the much talked about VeChain, the up and coming BaaS (Blockchain as a service) platform.

Despite the spreading of fear, uncertainty and doubt towards crypto by some big Wall Street names, some of whom are now backtracking, we are encouraged to see so many established companies embrace the blockchain technology. Along with the big names mentioned, there is also news of Walmart (WMT), Visa (V) and Amazon (AMZN) being in the process of testing the technology for integration with their systems. In fact, a recent Juniper Research survey also reported that almost 6 in 10 large corporations are considering using blockchain.

The jury is still out on whether big companies developing their own blockchain are in it for a quick cash grab or are truly trying to create unique and interesting technologies. We can only hope that more and more large corporations continue to move forward with this trend and shed light on the groundbreaking technology of blockchain, rather than the endless short-term price speculation rampant in the seedier parts of the space. The sooner that coins and tokens actually adds economic value, the sooner the crypto space will reach mainstream acceptance. In the long run, we see corporate blockchains complementing traditional cryptocurrencies and spurring mainstream adoption. We also believe that companies like IBM are embracing innovation and could reap the rewards of their early adopter status down the road.

Ripple, Ethereum, and ICOs

cryptocurrency-sec

So as you’ve probably heard  because the media can’t shut up about it  in 2017, the Ripple currency  otherwise known as XRP shot up in value  across the year by 30,000%.  A lot of that just being in the last couple of weeks.  A lot of this was being driven by a rumor  that was going around the space  about Ripple potentially being added to the Coinbase app.  I actually heard about this rumor a couple of months ago  and there was some fake screenshots and videos going around  which easily could have been put together  in Photoshop or something like that.

But you can never discount the power of a rumor  and the speculative money people  are willing to gamble on something.  So what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks  is the price shoot through the roof.  As with all things in cryptocurrency though  speculative price increases do not equal utility  and that’s why I wanted to talk a little bit today  about what Ripple is and why  it’s not really decentralized at all.

What is Ripple?

Ripple was created many, many years ago  and I’m not gonna tell the full history story  but it was created by somebody called Jed McCaleb  who is actually the person who created Mt. Gox.  But he then sold it to Mark Karpeles  before all that bad stuff happened.  Then after Ripple, he went on to create something called  Stellar which is another cryptocurrency.  Ripple has been around for a long time  and it’s always kind of hovered  in the top 10 cryptocurrencies  but people haven’t really known what to make of it.  That’s because Ripple mostly targets its marketing  towards banks and big financial institutions  rather than the small guys.

So historically, the people who were against the banks  and against financial institutions  I.e. the people that created BitCoin  they didn’t want any part in Ripple  because they didn’t want to side with these people  who created the economic crash.  But speculation from uneducated investors strikes again.  So the reason you’ll hear some people screaming  Ripple isn’t decentralized  is the fact that Ripple actually only relies  on around 55 validator nodes  and these validator notes, a lot of them  belong to Ripple themselves  they just service somewhere  but a lot of them belong to banks and exchanges  which Ripple, the company, has partnered with.  Most of these people are gateways in the Ripple network  and it’s important to know that XRP  which is the currency that is traded on Ripple  it’s the base currency  is just one of the things you can trade on Ripple.

Ripple is actually supposed to be rails  for these financial institutions  and what that means in a nutshell  is that Ripple is designed to be a new technology stack  for banks and financial institutions  to trade assets, whatever they may be.  They may be USD or Euros  just faster between one another.  So basically these 55-ish validator nodes  they tell each other about all the transactions  that are happening on their independent gateways  and then if they all agree with one another  they keep moving the ledger forward and forward and forward.  As long as they agree on everything, it’s all peachy  but this is really easy to pull off  when there’s only 55 validator nodes in the world  especially if like half of them are owned by one company.

Just to put it in contrast, Ethereum has over 29,000  full nodes validating and BitCoin has around 12,000.  On top of that, Ethereum and BitCoin  also have the proof of work mining  which secures the ledger.  To further compound things, the Stellar protocol  which I mentioned earlier.  they actually started out as a fork of Ripple  they just forked the code base  and changed everything a little bit  but shortly after releasing, they actually discovered  that there were problems in the Ripple protocol  which amounted to them saying Ripple isn’t secure  as a consensus protocol above one node.  So there’s actually a chance that these 55 validator nodes  the banks and the exchanges out there  are all just playing by the rules  and the protocol actually hasn’t been tested at scale  when a bad actor comes into the scene.

The thing is, it’s only these big companies  that are invited to run these validator nodes  so we’ll never really know if there was 1,000  nodes tomorrow by just regular people running them  whether the network protocol and consensus  would actually work.  Stellar actually had to completely re-architect  and redo their consensus protocol  which is now called the Stellar consensus protocol.  I might cover that in the future  but basically, it’s a practical byzantine fault tolerant  consensus protocol and it’s a lot more resilient  against consensus attacks.  But let’s say we forget the consensus protocol stuff  which we shouldn’t, but let’s say we do.

Even if you look at the Ripple money supply  that XRP token, the Ripple company themselves  and their partners own over 50% of the money supply.  That means that they essentially control the market  and I don’t think you have to be an economist  to know it’s bad when a single company  owns 50% of the money supply.  Because there was never any mining in Ripple  it was essentially all pre-mined  and sent to the company themselves  and they were then able to sell it  and distribute it to people as they saw fit.  But on top of this, and this is kind of the real kicker.  The Ripple protocol actually has something in it  called a freeze function and what this essentially does  is it allows gateways to freeze your account  just like a regular bank can freeze your account.  So if one of these gateways doesn’t like what you’re doing  they can then freeze all your funds  which doesn’t really sound that decentralized  or trustless to me.

I think it’s really important to understand these essentials  about what Ripple is.  I’m not necessarily down on Ripple  its just not what I would deem as a cryptocurrency  or something that extends the original vision of  Satoshi and BitCoin.  That original vision was about doing away with the banks  and making sure that people had  control over their own money.  They wanted to get away from centralization  they wanted to decentralize  and make it so that one big company couldn’t  freeze your account or control the whole money supply.

Like I said, I’m not necessarily down on Ripple  it’s a company and software and they can do what they want  but I think a lot of the people that are  pouring their money into the thing right now  are just simply uneducated about what the thing is.  It’s either that or it is the cryptocurrency  people have just said, you know what?  We don’t care about decentralization  or trustless consensus any more.  We’re all in on this centralized thing.  In a way, putting your money into XRP  is like just putting your money into a Venmo account  because there’s a lot of trust  in the people running the network involved.

The only difference is people go and tell  their friends and family, buy this XRP thing  and you’re gonna get rich  and it artificially drives the price up.  It’s literally the definition of a speculative bubble.  If you remember, I said that this whole  kind of sparked off because of a rumor  that Coinbase were gonna add Ripple to their app.  In the last couple of days, Coinbase have come out  and said, we’re not adding any new assets  that was just a rumor.

So the price of Ripple quickly crashed 20%  who knows what it’s doing now, I haven’t really checked.  Ultimately, I hope this is just a case  of people not being educated and they’re gonna go out there  and endeavor to become more educated about this stuff.  People just throwing their money at things  without really knowing what they are  and I just think it’s a sad state of affairs  if that’s what cryptocurrency has become.  People just putting their money into something  regardless of the technical background of the thing.

Why is Ethereum so slow?

So moving on, Ethereum, we’ve seen its price  also go up with the market over the last couple of weeks  I think it’s hovering at around $1,000 right now.  But this increase in price coupled with the fact  that there’s severe scaling issues  with the Ethereum protocol  has meant that the network is really suffering  and it costs a lot of money to  send Ethereum to anybody right now.  Just sending Ethereum to somebody right now  will cost around $2 or $3  and if you’re trying to interact with ERC-20 tokens  those tokens that ICO’s use, it’s gonna cost more than that.

And then you’ve got to wait for the backlog  of these transactions to get picked up by miners  which is taking even longer  and what it ultimately results in  is that token exchanges can take hours  if not days to process.  This is a really big problem  especially for exchanges who have to deal  with people withdrawing their money  and the exchanges have to set the fees accordingly.  In addition, when people are trying  to deposit into exchanges  they’re obviously getting a lot of support emails  saying hey I sent this token two days ago, where is it?  And it’s not really the exchanges fault at all  it’s the Ethereum network itself.  As a result, we’ve actually seen some exchanges  such as Bittrex holt the creation of  new deposit addresses on their exchange.

ethereum

So if you’re a new user, you basically can’t use Bittrex  for anything Ethereum or ERC related.  Ethereum scaling is a really big challenge  and I’m not sure that something like payment channels  is really a silver bullet that’s gonna solve all of this.  As per our previous cryptocurrency weekly video  I was talking about how fees are another  big problem that we need to address.  With payment channels, you have to open and close them  so those fees aren’t gonna go away.  As the price hikes up and up and up  these fees are gonna go up as well  because the fiat price that people  are exchanging for goes up.

So what might have been a 20 cent fee a couple of weeks ago  might now be $1 fee.  I don’t have a good solutio to this problem  but I’m sure somebody out there is working on it.  On the topic of exchanges  we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks  exchanges picking up the pace  at which they’re delisting certain  ERC-20 tokens on their platforms.  They have a variety of reasons  they deem for delisting a token.  It used to be just about transaction volume  and if enough people weren’t really trading the thing  they would de-list it.  But these days, there’s a whole bunch of other fears  that the exchange’s have about whether the thing  might be deemed as a security in the future  which could put the exchange in hot water.

Just yesterday, several tokens were announced  to be de-listed from Bittrex including some pretty big ones  that people have been excited about  and people are starting to freak out about  whether the tokens that they hold  could just be de-listed tomorrow.  The general rule of thumb here  and this is not legal financial advice at all.  I think if the token can be redeemed  for a tangible good or service  then it’s kind of safe because just like  you were sold an Amazon gift voucher  which you can then redeem for something.  If there isn’t a working platform  or good or service you can redeem that for  and the token’s only use is to send between one another  with no real purpose then that’s a little worrying.

ICO tokens being delisted?

I actually think we’re gonna see a lot more  of this behavior over the next couple of months  with exchanges de-listing tokens  they’re just not sure about  and their lawyers might be freaking out about.  I think we’ll start seeing regulatory bodies  start coming down on these ICO’s that have launched  over the past 12 months and kind of setting a case  and a precedent that they’ll then use moving forward.

This puts exchanges in a really hard spot  because they don’t want to be doing anything illegal  so I think their lawyers are probably  going to tell them to take the safest bet  which is de-listing anything that isn’t 100% legit.  I called this out a while ago on a previous video  but I think the first half of this year, 2018  is gonna be really interesting  when we start seeing the cookie kind of crumble  because we’re at a point where a lot of these ICO‘s  from last year are failing to deliver on their roadmaps  and also, the regulatory bodies had time  to do their homework and kind of take stock  of everything that’s happened.  It’s really just a watch this space for now  but it’s gonna be interesting  and I’ll keep you all up to date  with it through these videos.

Now I know you’re probably thinking  Jackson, do another technical video  I want to promise there are more coming.  I’m probably gonna be doing a video around  just byzantine fault tolerant protocols such as Stellar  and also videos around things like Iota, Cardano  things that these new cutting-edge technologies  which people seem interested in.  I also want to do a Mimblewimble video  because it sounds cool but  it’s also very cool technology.  So that’s it for today.  I hope you found this video helpful.  If you did, please subscribe  and you’ll get weekly updates just like this.  If you learnt something from this video  or just brought you up to date  please click that like button, it really helps.  Until next time, thanks for watching.  See you later.

What Does Ethereum Moving to POS Mean for Investors?

Ethereum Bitcoin

As many of you may have heard by now, Ethereum is moving away from mining and towards a Proof of Stake model. What does this mean, other than a lot less electricity use? What are the implications for investors? We have done some research into this development and we think it could mean big things for Ethereum.

Proof of Work (PoW)

As of now, Ethereum’s token “Ether” is generated through a PoW (Proof of Work) method. That means that random miners are responsible for the creation of Ether. This uses a lot of resources- a very high amount of computational power and electricity. The brains behind Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, has himself stated that the electricity which is consumed by only Bitcoin and Ethereum is excessive.

To take Ethereum to the next step, the 24 year old inventor has decided to change the fundamental workings of the open source project. The plan is simply to shift the network to a PoS (Proof of Stake) model.

BitcoinEthereum

Proof of Stake

Proof of Stake in simple terms is the process of using “validators” in order to check the transactions. Processing under PoS is much simpler and easier i.e. the user just has to prove that he owns a certain amount of the coins which are in circulation. Also, PoS makes the system more secure and robust than PoW.

Vitalik Buterin has announced a roadmap for this transition. The initial step will be in making a “hybrid system” which the system will be running between PoS and PoW starting from August or September. The full transition is estimated to be completed by the end of this year. He has already released the PoS repository on GitHub. To make the transition happen there needs to be a  PoS protocol in place. Vitalik has decided to go with a smart contract PoS protocol known as “Casper”.

What is Casper?

Casper has been around since 2014 and simply put, it is going to be the work protocol for Ethereum’s PoS method. It lets the users of Ethereum vote for which block should be added to the chain. The final result will be taken on a consensus basis. If the user votes in favor of the eventual consensus then he will receive benefits. If his vote was against the consensus then his stake may be lost or reduced as a punishment for incorrect voting (assuming the majority of voters are not malicious). Casper regulates the mechanisms of processing the results, determining the consensus, granting benefits and nullifying or reducing the stakes of bad voters.

Three important applications of Casper

Less Censorship – in Bitcoin, if a miner loses a block/gets censored, remaining miners will benefit from this. In the case of Ethereum with Casper, everyone will benefit more if more correct blocks are added to the chain.
Costs – The validator method will have fewer costs than mining because of less electricity and less computing power usage.
Scalability – some of the scalability problems can be finally solved, as transactions should be sped up under PoS.

What will be the benefits for existing stakeholders?

There will be no requirement for generating new Ether which means that the existing stakeholders will be benefit on a large scale when compared to the new stakeholders in the future. However, the hard number of Ether which will be required to stake has not yet been released. Based on the working mechanism the amount required to stake during the start will be high and will eventually be reduced.

The problem and the solution

One of the long-discussed problems was the uncertainty of success in the PoS system. Many developers were worried that smart contacts might not work properly if PoS was implemented due to the “finality” problem. However, the ingenious Ethereum inventor has explained it briefly in this post. Casper will offer stronger finality guarantees than any proof of work method.

Downside of PoS

It is interesting to note that the biggest advantage of PoS system of Ether is also its biggest disadvantage. The major shareholders will be granted the access to more authority and control in both economic and technical areas. This may them to have undue influence versus the average stakeholder.

Summary

Cryptocurrencies sprang up based on a number of novel concepts, however Ethereum is one of the very few cryptocurrencies which is on a continued path towards innovation. One of the advantages for Ethereum is that under its Enterprise Ethereum Alliance program it gets help from various Fortune 500 companies. It also has an incredible developer base that is dedicated to its success. As stated earlier, users can look forward to the switch from the current system (PoW) to the hybrid system by the August or September. The complete transition is expected to happen before the end of this year.

After the Casper update, the price may experience a positive shock, not only because of the new features but because there will limited availability of Ether in the chain. This may be a catalyst for Ethereum to overtake Bitcoin in 2018.

What is Stellar? (XLM)

Stellar coin

– Let’s talk about Stellar.  I’ve got a lot of requests recently for a video on Stellar,  more specifically the Stellar Consensus Protocol.  What powers the whole network known as Stellar?  I think a lot of these interests has come from the fact  that the Stellar price has actually been going up  to the right recently.  But also, that a bunch of ICO are starting  to run their ICOs on Stellar instead of Ethereum.

The obvious question is, why would they make that decision?  So let’s try to break that down in this video.  I do warn you this gets a little bit technical  because we are talking about a consensus protocol,  so if you’re having trouble following along,  something I recommend to a lot of viewers  is if you go down to the YouTube settings  in that little cog icon, you can change the speed to 0.75,  and changing it to 0.75 speed  would make me sound all weird,  but it will make things a little bit slower  and easy to follow along with.  It’s hard to go at just the right speed for everybody.  Some people say I’m too fast;  some people say I’m too slow.  So I’m just trying to pack everything  in a nice condensed video,  and hopefully, you can adjust the speed  to suit your viewing preference.

Stellar

The history of Stellar

Stellar has been around for a while, since 2014 actually.  And it was started through the Stellar Foundation,  which was created by Jed McCaleb and Joyce Kim.  Originally, Stellar was simply  a fork of the Ripple protocol,  and that’s because Jed McCaleb, the creator of Stellar,  also created Ripple back in the day.  But there’s a common misconception  that that’s still the way it is, and that’s not true.  Stellar actually completely re-architected their code based  in a way that protocol works,  so let’s cover that in this video.

So to start with, we need to talk about  what Byzantine Fault Tolerance means,  and I have a previous video on this,  which I recommend you go back and watch  just around how consensus works.  But in a nutshell, you have a set of validators,  say 12 validators who need to all agree on one thing.  When they agree on this thing,  they achieve something called quorum or consensus,  and then that gets written back into history  in the form of a Blockchain  or some sort of other ledger data structure.

Most implementations to date in the cryptocurrency space  have implemented something called  Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance,  which was actually outlined in a Whitepaper  all the way back in 1999.  And these networks typically have  a predefined set of validators who achieve consensus.  By predefined, I mean that there’s usually  a central authority, usually the software developers  of the protocol, who define who those validators are.  In Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance,  everything’s peachy if you can keep 66% of the validators  agreeing on the one thing,  so just like in proof of work systems  where you have a 51% attack,  if someone gets 51% of the hashing power,  in practical byzantine fault tolerance systems,  you have to make sure that you don’t have  more that 33% of the nodes in the network being malicious.

Some examples of this PBFT systems  include systems like Ripple, which I’ve already mentioned,  Hyperledger, which is another private blockchain solution,  and also Tendermint,  which I’ve covered in the previous video.  So as I said earlier, Stellar was originally forked  from the PBFT implementation of Ripple,  which is originally created by Jed McCaleb as well.  But after the initial release of the Stellar network  as it began to gain traction,  the network suffered a pretty bad fall,  which means consensus wasn’t being achieved on the network.

Stellar did a lot of research in this,  and they actually brought somebody in  called Professor David Mazières.  And in this research, they found  that the existing Ripple system wasn’t really fault tolerant  beyond one or a couple of nodes.  So they had to go back to the drawing board,  and Professor David Mazières wrote to Whitepaper  outlining something called the Stellar Consensus Protocol.  Rather than using that traditional  practical byzantine fault tolerance,  it uses something called a Federated Byzantine Agreement.  And in this model, instead of having  that predefined set of validators  that a company like Ripple sets up  or when you set up a Hyperledger  you have to define their validators.

In a Federated Byzantine Agreement system like Stellar,  the nodes can openly choose who they trust,  and when the node in a Stellar network  decides who to trust, this is called a “quorum slice.”  based on all the nodes that are talking to one another,  they combine these quorum slices  to form quorums within the network.  Ultimately, the market that exists within the network  defines who is trustworthy,  rather than the software developer’s own company  predefining any set of validators.  Because of nodes being able to choose who they trust,  you’ll sometimes hear this system called “open membership,”  because it’s not a closed system.

Anyone can spin up a node and become a validator  in the network of their own accord.  Now because of this open motto  where people were choosing who they trust,  you can end up having two quorums  completely separate and not talking to one another,  which obviously would be a problem.  And this is addressed through something  called quorum intersection,  which essentially states that two quorums  always have to be linked by one node.  It will essentially make sure that transactions  that are happening in one side of the quorum  are also happening on the other.

The Stellar consensus protocol 

The Stellar consensus protocol  outlines a lot of cool ways to deal with this,  but it’s important to outline that this isn’t bulletproof.  If you do have a network full of malicious nodes  who are doing things to mess up the network,  or you have just nodes going down for no reason,  then obviously this system is gonna fall apart.  But because of the open membership system,  it’s ultimately more decentralized  and, in my opinion, better  than practical byzantine fault tolerance protocols.

So the core of this Stellar consensus protocol  is that in order to achieve  this federated byzantine agreement,  nodes were essentially filling out a ballot  all the time and voting on consensus.  And during this federated voting process,  the nodes are sending messages between one another  with a statement of something  that they believe should be written into history.

In addition to that, when they’re sending these messages,  essentially, the transactions that are being written  into the state of the blockchain,  these nodes are also broadcasting  what the quorum slice looks like, who they trust.  And through this, they’re essentially getting  a gossip protocol that helps spread node discovery.  These people are saying, hey, I trust these people,  and as another node, you can look  at who everybody trusts and build a quorum based on that.  If everybody’s telling you who they trust,  you can essentially build a map of the whole network  and see how consensus is being reached.

Now, I’m not going to go too deep into the voting process  ’cause it is quite complex,  and I recommend you read the Whitepaper  if you wanna go that deep into the protocol.  But essentially, all these participating nodes  do continuous rounds of voting  until they can come to an agreement  about what should be written into history.  Eventually, assuming you don’t have malicious nodes  or nodes just going offline,  the net group of nodes will establish a quorum.

After everything it’s prepared and voted on,  then there’s another round of voting  to get that actually committed into the network.  At this point, the nodes can vote to do one of two things.  They can either commit or they can abort.  And through this and repeated cycles of voting,  they eventually come to consensus.  So it’s really important to know  what we’ve just discussed is simply a consensus network.  It’s a way to get a group of decentralized entities  to agree on something.  It means it doesn’t take care of things  such as minting new coins.  It doesn’t take care of incentivising nodes,  like why would I spin up a node  if it’s only gonna cost me money  and there’s no block rewards?  And it also doesn’t predefine trust,  which, in a way, is a good thing,  but also means that discovery has to happen  on the node itself.

To solve the minting problem, Stellar had an initial period  where you could sign up and verify  with something like Facebook and social media profile,  and they would essentially airdrop you a bunch of tokens.  They’ve also done things like Bitcoin airdrops  based on how much Bitcoin you have as well.  So the Stellar consensus protocol and Stellar in general,  they do still require some trust in the system  and who you’ve defined that you trust in your quorum slice.  It does provide a much better order trail  of what those nodes and participants are doing.  So if all of a sudden, a bunch of nodes become malicious,  you can easily update your quorum slice  to point at other nodes which you find trustworthy.  In that way, it’s resilient to a lot  of different attack factors.

Through all of this, Stellar able to offer a protocol  that has very fast transaction times,  low fees, and high skill ability ultimately.  They’ve done away with proof of work mining,  which means you don’t have a bunch of people  wasting computing power just in order to secure the network.  One thing I do wanna call out,  because it gets a lot of comments though  is that Stellar does have a limited number of nodes  powering the network at this point in time.  I can only find around 20 or 30 nodes  that is securing the network.  I think this is mostly because  there’s no real incentive for an average Joe  to spin up a server and run a validating node.  It’s an expensive thing to do,  and there’s no block rewards  that give you payment for doing so.

So this does introduce some incentive  toward centralization.  But again, remember back to the fact  that this is an open membership system,  so essentially, anybody can spin up a node if they want to.  That means that it’s not that technically different  from something like Bitcoin.  Or technically, anybody can point  hashing power at it and participate.  Even in a system like Bitcoin,  we’ve seen that centralization develop over time  as it’s so costly to run the hardware  and pay for the electricity.  Ultimately though, I think that Stellar  is a far better improvement upon other  practical byzantine fault tolerant protocols like Ripple,  ’cause it has that open membership system.  It’s not closing it off.

How currency and assets work on the Stellar protocol?

Anybody can participate.  So that’s consensus, but let’s talk a little bit  about how currency and assets work on the Stellar protocol.  Stellar has a native currency called XLM or lumens.  And this is use simply to pay fees  which are relatively low,  but offer a form of spam protection.  So on top of the Stellar network and that XLM currency,  you can also issue assets or tokens  just like you could with an ERC20 token on Ethereum.  But I’d say it’s actually a little bit more secure  that something like an ERC20  because there’s no scripting,  there’s no smart contract required.  It’s simply using built in functions  to issue an asset on the Stellar protocol.

Assets can be anything,  from something that’s created like a token,  or it can be a real world asset like USD or Euros.  When you hold an asset on the Stellar protocol,  you’re actually holding a credit  from an issuer that you trust  to have that asset somewhere.  This all takes place through something called a trustline.  To set up this relationship, you set up a trustline  between your account i.e. your wallet  and the issuer of the asset.

So for instance, if you setup a trustline with company X,  and they gave you token Y,  what they’re actually issuing you  is a credit for that token Y.  And the trustline is simply a relationship that says,  I trust that these people are good for token Y  and they can repay that  or I can redeem that token Y in the future.  This matters less with token systems  that are new tokens that a company is issuing,  but for something like USD,  you’re saying that you trusted that company  has a reserve somewhere  that you can redeem that USD credit you’ve been issued  for that USD at some point in the future.

Participants that issue assets like this  are called “anchors” in the Stellar network.  And any account can issue assets in this way.  So the ability to create and transfer assets  on top of the Stellar protocol,  Stellar needed to offer a way  for people to trade between these assets freely.  And so there’s actually a distributed exchange  built into the protocol itself.  When you have trustlines set up  and you have assets on a particular issuer,  you can actually put orders on the distributed order book  and then trade just like you would on a regular exchange.  This is baked in at the actual protocol level,  but there are some interfaces  and websites that go into this  that make it look more like a regular exchange.

The most popular one is called stellarterm.com.  I’ll link to it below.  And you can actually go there and have a look  at the order books that are trading right now.  Due to the nature of easily being able to issue assets  and then allow users to transfer them  and trade them on a distributed exchange,  a lot of these ICO companies  are investigating whether they should  issue their tokens on Stellar  instead of something like Ethereum  which has high transaction cost.  When you want to transfer an ERC20 token  to somebody right now, it can cost a lot.  It can cost upwards of $2.  On Stellar, you’d be paying a fraction of a penny  for that transaction.

Users also get excited about this as well,  ’cause they don’t have to worry for the asset  to then get listed on some secondary market or big exchange.  It’s instantly tradable on the distributed exchange  which Stellar offers out of the box.  If you wanna play around with this,  you can simply go over to the stellarterm.com website,  and once you’ve signed up for,  well, it’s a pretty simple process.  You can go to the “Accept Assets” tab.  Under there, you can see all the assets  which you can start accepting,  and you just click a button  and it creates a trustline between them.

Hot tip when you’re doing this,  this has confused me before as well,  you have to mintain a minimum balance of XLM of lumens  in the account before you can setup these trustlines.  So you wanna have a few lumens in the account  before you go ahead and do that.  Support for Stellar seems to be growing  with the Ledger Nano S, the hardware wallet  that everybody loves, adding support for Stellar recently.  And you can actually set it up to support tokens and assets  listed on Stellar as well.

If you wanna check out an asset  that was recently issued on Stellar,  you should check out Mobius.  I did an interview with them previously,  and they recently did their whole ICO on Stellar.  It’s a Stellar native asset rather than ERC20 token.  I’ll link to all these stuff in the description below  so you can go and check it out.  So Stellar is a really novel approach  to byzantine fault tolerant consensus.  I think more people should look into the Whitepaper  ’cause it’s actually really well written.  That’s rather unique in the way it approaches the problem.

I also really appreciate the fact  that Stellar Foundation is a non-profit organization,  and they’re focusing on trying to bank the unbanked  in economies where people don’t have access  to the infrastructure we have in the U.S.  It’s always nice when you see projects  try to give back to society,  rather than just creating something that the rich can use.  I think, ultimately, for all the reasons I’ve listed,  there’s gonna be a lot more ICOs  and people who will try and “tokenize” things,  putting those tokens in assets on the Stellar protocol  rather than something like Ethereum,  something to avoid the congestion and transaction fees  that Ethereum has right now.  As it gains adoption, it’s gonna be really interesting  to monitor how the Stellar protocol scales,  because I don’t thing we’ve really seen the protocol,  the current set of validators  really battle tested to the scale  that Ethereum is running at right now.

I do just wanna reiterate  that the Stellar consensus protocol  isn’t a magical bulletproof solution to consensus.  There are a lot of issues  which I have tried to point out in this video.  It does do rely on a bulk of the network being honest  and not trying to submit malicious transactions  for the quorum to be reached  and consensus to write into history.  But I do think it is a step  above other protocols like Ripple  and other people who have tried to implement  practical byzantine fault tolerance.

We have a preselect set of validators  that you have to adhere to.  There’s some other technologies  which I have been asked to cover  and I will in the future.  One of them that comes to mind is Hashgraph,  but I’ve yet to see if they can implement  an open membership system.  All the implementations I’ve seen so far  have been closed membership systems by private blockchains.  And they haven’t had an open membership system  when anybody can spin up a node and become a validator.

So that’s Stellar and an overview of its consensus protocol  and how it handles byzantine fault tolerant consensus.  I think it’s pretty novel approach.  I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments  and if you have any questions about it,  just drop them below.  Thanks for watching this video.  If you found it helpful, click that like button.  It really helps out.  And if you wanna get weekly updates,  click the subscribe button.  If you click the bell icon next to the subscribe button,  we’ll go on better and actually notify you  when I post a new video.  As always, thanks for watching.  Until next time.  See you later.

The Coming Age of Crypto Privacy

cryptocurrencies

I don’t normally post but in this age of new investors I see a lot of enthusiasm and questions as to what to invest in. This question is a potentially deep one and one that I find captivating, with its answer burried in the quickly developing cryptocurrency landscape.

It is true that nothing is certain in this future. Bitcoin could reach one million, maintaining it’s hold as the main trading pair; it could stagnate in the transaction scaling issues which grow more prominent, necessitating in the diversification of trading pairs and commercially accepted cryptocurrencies; or one of the infinite combinations between.

One thing that is certain about our future is as the total market cap grows, governments and institutions in positions of power are going to want to put their hands into the game in order to control or regulate so that they can get a piece of what they believe is theirs.

Now rules and regulations are not something I claim to be an expert in so I won’t attempt to speak to them but I know one thing, governments love their money and they will not stand idly by watching this market make tremendous profits for many involved and not want a piece. They fear not having control over something so powerful and lucrative.

bitcoin price

We see this already with the IRS requesting Coinbase to hand over information on users ([link](https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/11/29/16717416/us-coinbase-irs-records)), and the Department of Defense sending memos requesting assistance in the research of stealth addresses, ring signatures and Cryptonote (Monero, Aeon) code in general ([link](https://i.warosu.org/data/biz/img/0033/62/1504671158465.jpg)). These are the whispers in the wind of what is coming. They want to be able to see and monitor what people have and where it is going. Private and fungible cryptocurrency makes the surveillance obsessed state sweat.

So what does this mean? Large scale blockchain analysis to link address ownership to you, tracking not only wealth but where that money goes? Mandatory reporting of trade history if Coinbase reports your purchasing (which would also reveal your addresses if you send directly to it)? I am not sure what the form this increased scrutiny will bring. The important part is that public blockchains (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and many more) make these things possible.

Now public blockchains aren’t going anywhere because many people don’t care about their freedom and privacy as we have seen with the whole net neutrality fiasco and the many government leaks concerning surveillance. But what happens as cryptocurrencies continue to grow, regulations are passed, the wealth of many of you grow to the point that governments become interested you? These are a few (but very important) reasons there will be a massive growth in anonymous and private cryptocurrencies in the coming years of mass adoption.

There are several coins touted as private and anonymous, but every one has some compromise or vulnerability, except one ([link](https://moneroforcash.com/monero-vs-dash-vs-zcash-vs-bitcoinmixers.php)). That one is also the only one that the DoD is sending memos about and the FBI has been unable to crack (AlphaBay take down. [Excerpt](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FSietBhv.png&t=584&c=iXlxRu0fsSk3uA) [Link](https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3898109/AlphaBay-Cazes-Forfeiture-Complaint.pdf)), Cryptonote cryptocurrencies. This really only pertained to Monero as the sole holder of the privacy throne.

How much growth can we expect to see? Is it reasonable to assume that in the next years monero could get to the market cap of Ethereum, $60 billion, or 1/4 of Bitcoin’s current market cap? If that becomes reality we would see $4,000 monero, a 11x increase from today’s standing. This may be conservative and even happen by year end 2018.

Now I said “pertained” earlier because there used to be only one viable Cryptonote currency. There have been others but nothing ever truly got off the ground. But there is currently life being breathed into [Aeon](https://www.reddit.com/r/Aeon/), a Cryptonote currency touting all the benefits of Monero (now and future) with more of a focus on easy of use and mobility with a lighter version of the same ASIC resistant Cryptonote algorithm. This is a risky investment now as work is still being done but if this is successful in what they have set out to accomplish, Aeon will be the Litecoin to Monero.

They may also have a more symbiotic dynamic than the bitcoin-litecoin relationship. Aeon can serve as a test bed for new ideas for use in Monero and the similarity between the two may someday lead to atomic swap-like technology to help solve scaling issues that will undoubtedly arise in the growing usage of Monero like we currently see in Bitcoin.

Again, it’s still early but keep an eye on this one. It’s hanging out around $50 million market cap which is like getting into Monero in mid 2016. And if Monero gets to the Ethereum levels mentioned above, Aeon would likely maintain a 1/10 value relationship and be around where Monero is today, $350 – $400, a 100x gain. So in my opinion, very cheap for a coin that no one can see how much you have or where it goes, not even the government.

Just two cents that were getting a little heavy on my chest.